Friday, July 8, 2011

Obama's big decision: Should they stay or should they go? | World news

 

General David Petraeus may try to buy time by persuading Obama to fudge his July 2011 'deadline' for beginning American troop withdrawals. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP

The list of British casualties in Afghanistan makes grim reading, particularly over the last fortnight; five deaths in two weeks, a sure sign that the fighting season is well under way in those areas where the British are taking the lead.

Today, the New York Times reports that President Barack Obama is now considering a more substantial draw down of troops this year - a move that would help appease those in Congress who feel they have been there too long already, especially now that Osama bin Laden has been killed.

The number of British troops being killed is not going to affect President Obama's thinking, but they do reflect that the insurgents, though pounded over the winter months thanks to the 'surge', are certainly not finished yet.

And that is why commanders at the top of ISAF (the International Security and Assistance Force) are wary of giving them unnecessary encouragement.

An announcement by Obama of a timetable for a substantial withdrawal of American troops would certainly do that, they would argue.

The tension between military commanders in Afghanistan and their political leaders is growing, and was underlined last week, when Lieutenant General James Bucknall, second in command at ISAF, told the Daily Telegraph that "this is not the time to send conflicting signals on commitment to the campaign".

This was a reiteration of something the British officer told the Guardian in May. In an interview, he said:

"This long-term commitment is absolutely key to our short-term progress. Why? Because until we have made it clear that the international community is not going to abandon Afghanistan in the near term, until that time, the insurgents will think that they can wait out the campaign. The Afghan people will not necessarily have the confidence to back their own government. And it is important that the regional players understand that the international community is going to be here for some time to come."

Keeping up the pressure on the insurgents is what the military wants to do, not signal the start of a withdrawal.

Impressions count, they say, so even if the number of front-line troops remains constant over the next few months, telling the Taliban when NATO soldiers are going to leave will only encourage them to hide out.

There are other factors to consider. Though the number of British casualties has risen in the last fortnight, military commanders say this is not representative of the position on the ground in Helmand province.

Last year in May, British troops had 'contact' with insurgent fighters 160 times in four weeks (15 in the first week of May, 30 in the second, 50 in the third and 65 in the fourth). This year, the total for May was 96 'contacts' (11, 10, 45, 30).

The British are only responsible for a small fraction of Afghan territory, and the figures are just a snapshot from one month - but it hints that the surge has had an effect.

Does that make the President inclined to withdraw more troops and earlier? Or does it tell him the surge is working - and he should stick at it.

We will know soon enough - the President is due to make up his mind by the end of the month.

No comments:

Post a Comment